With the news that the Celtics may be dumping ol' Bassy Telfair, I decided to do the first part of a post I've been sitting on for a week, trying to get finished.
This was inspired by Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy, who wrote: 'I wish the NBA had the equivalent of the Razzie Awards so Dunleavy could win "Worst Coach of the Year."' So we'll give him his wish, whether he reads it or not, and we'll try to use Win Score as justification for the nominees and winners.
Without further ado, the Basketball Razzies, part one:
Worst Player of the Year
Nominees:
Sebastian Telfair - PG - Boston Celtics
Telfair has got to be the biggest disappointment of the year. Expectations were high when the trade was made that allowed Portland to get Brandon Roy. Not only did Telfair fail to meet expectations, but he managed to perform worse in almost every major category than his career averages, which were dismal to begin with.
Do we start with the 37% FG shooting, including 29% from behind the arc? Or maybe the anemic totals of 2.8 assists and 1.4 rebounds per game. Telfair's Position Adjusted Win Score per minute comes out to -0.110, meaning that, like the others on this list, he actually took away wins while he was on the court. Of course, since the Celtics ended up in the lottery, this was actually a good thing this year.
Replacement: Chad Ford (ESPN Insider required) argues that the Celtics should hang on to Bassy and try to get something in a trade, saying "giving up an asset like Telfair for nothing only hurts the Celtics". However, that is not true. If the Celtics would have dropped Telfair before the season that would have allowed Rajon Rondo and his (approx.) 0.161 WP48 more time as his natural 1 spot. Delonte West could have split the rest of the time with Rondo, and the Celtics would have been a lot better this year. The Celts should drop Telfair like he's hot, because you know Doc Rivers wouldn't be able to resist playing him, and I hear the Celtics plan to try to be a good basketball team next year.
Adam Morrison - F - Charlotte Bobcats
It's not nice to hate on rookies. I know this, but there's just no getting around it. Morrison played way too many minutes for a guy contributing such a large amount to the failure of his team. Some of the highlights include his 38% FG shooting, 130 turnovers and three rebounds a game. Not much rebounding for a guy who claims to be 6'8". He managed over the year to get a position-adjusted Win Score of -401!
Replacement: The Bobcats should probably be going with Matt Carroll at SG, Gerald Wallace at SF, and Sean May at PF. Each of those players managed to be above average at their position and should be on the floor much more than Morrison.
Jason Collins - C - New Jersey Nets
I have a soft spot in my heart for the baby-faced Collins, having dealt with years of his brother somehow making a place on Jerry Sloan's roster. But how the Nets even made the playoffs with Collins playing the way he has this year is a testament to how good Jason Kidd and yes, even Vince Carter have been this year. Collins shot 36%, a shocking number when you consider that most of his shots should be taken close to the rim. And how a supposed seven-footer can only average 4 rebounds in 23 minutes a game is beyond comprehension. Add to that a Shaqian 46% on free throws and a paltry .5 blocks per game and you've got a PAWS/min of -0.137 and a player only a brother could love.
Replacement: Looks like the only viable chance for a replacement would just be to send out Josh Boone and see what happens. The Nets' big men have all been less than stellar, but Boone managed to play better than average (an estimated .122 WP48), and deserves a chance to try to perform that well in extended minutes.
Antoine Walker - F - Miami Heat
You wonder why the Miami Heat aren't nearly as good this year as last? It's not all just injuries. Let's compare Walker shooting drop from last year to this one.
FG% 3P% FT%
05-06 .435 .358 .628
06-07 .397 .275 .438
So why is he playing half of every game? It's not for his shooting, and heaven knows it's not for his defense or 4 rebounds per game. If someone can figure this out, please let me know. A PAWS/min of -0.122 isn't helping his case either.
Replacement: I guess part of the reason may be that Udonis Haslem is a bit undersized for PF. But they've got to put him out there at PF and let Dorell Wright, Jason Kapono and James Posey fight for the SF minutes.
And The Winner Is---
Jason Collins, congratulations!
I couldn't bear to give it to Morrison, being just a rookie. I'm sure he reads this blog, and I don't want to crush the spirits of such a young man. Telfair played terrible, but didn't have as many minutes as the rest. As for Walker, at least he passes well for a big man. I just couldn't find anything justifying the time Collins spent on the court. Poor shooting, poor rebounding, a ton of fouls. I think New Jersey would have a lot better chance in this Toronto series if they would let loose with Josh Boone. Well, maybe next year.
So what do you think? Did I make the right choice? Any names I missed (By the way, the requirements to be in this category were 1500 minutes played. I'll be doing Worst Supporting Player later on.)
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9 comments:
Doesn't a negative PAWS/min just imply that someone is below average? At what point does a negative PAWS/min correlate with a negate WP48?
I'm using the approximation equation that dberri gave in one of his posts.
WP48 = 0.104 + 1.621*PAWSmin
So basically, if PAWSmin is less than -0.104, then you will get a negative WP48. And since average WP48 is 0.100, then a negative WP48 is very bad indeed.
Great idea, great post and thanks for the explanation, I was unclear about that also.
Eddy Curry maybe should be in there with a .002. He is barely positive, which hurts my case. But he is also the franchise center of the Knicks, playing 35 minutes per night for a team coached and run by Isaiah Thomas. That has to count for something. He also is the protagonist of many great WOW posts, including one of my personal favorites, the Curry Scoring Illusion.
His raw stats this year were really a thing of rare beauty, a collectors item. He basically redefined the turnover at the center position. He finished with less than twice as many rebounds as turnovers, and a .23 a/to ratio. Those are magnificent, trophy numbers and I think he deserves some recognition for his hard work.
You have a good point, but unfortunately Eddy's high field goal percentage prevents him from getting the recognition that he so richly deserves.
This may be too difficult, but would it be possible to put a filter option on the rankings that eliminates the players that every single team shares in common? This would make comparing teams much easier, as I think every team shares at least the same 10-12 guys, possibly more.
the unpredictability of small sample sizes. It's amazing no one drafted baron davis. It's rational - in choosing between different productive players, you want to choose the ones with the highest statistical probability to advance, but still. Small sample sizes can throw robust predictive algorithms out of wack. and baron davis is letting all us stat heads regret that we passed him over.
amarishnu
You know what I would love to know. How many wins do you think Morrison cost the Bobcats this year? If they had replaced him with player who was even a .50, what would that have meant to their record.
I strongly disagree with the selection of Jason Collins. It just shows the limitation of the box-score-exclusively methodology. While the guy is nothing to write home about, he has played excellent defense this year on Howard, Curry, Bosh and others. Box scores don't capture that contribution directly. Telfair and Morrison have been far worse contributors than Collins.
I understand that box scores are limited in how they convey someone's defense contributions. And yet I still think that if the Nets had someone else taking Collins' minutes, that they would have won more games.
Even if the replacement wasn't considered to be a great defensive player, if his "box score stats" correlated to a higher Win Score, then I think you would see that in the team's results.
After all, fouls and rebounds can give you an idea of someone's defensive abilities. If Collins consistently sends Howard, Curry and Bosh to the line or allows them to get offensive rebounds, you're going to see that in the boxscore in the form of personal fouls and reduced rebounding for a player of his size.
You may be right that Collins wasn't the worst player in the league this year. But I think his good defense is not contributing as much to the team's success as you might think.
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